Today's reading

Because crises originate anywhere and arrive through a small number of channels. 2008 began in housing, but it reached retirement portfolios through credit spreads — which widened well before equities broke. 2020 began with a virus and arrived through funding stress and volatility. Housing and stocks are where trouble starts; these six are how it travels.

Stocks are not a signal here for a second reason: by the time equities have fallen, the information is no longer early. The six channels move first.

Because published data is settled data. Intraday figures get revised; the numbers used here do not move after the fact.

It also keeps the live score honest against its own history. The 20-year replay used only the data available on each historical day — no peeking at revisions that arrived later — and the live score runs the same discipline. A faster number would not be comparable to the record published beside it.

No. It is a stress classification, not a forecast. It says how much strain is presently visible in these channels — not what happens next.

Four tactical tests were preregistered to see whether the score could time market entries and exits. All four failed, and they are published in the methodology with the results. The score is useful for preparation, not timing.

Published rules, published failures, published history. The weights and thresholds are fixed in advance and versioned; the four tests that did not work are on the methodology page beside the ones that did; and the whole 20-year record is on this page, including the years the number was wrong.

Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything.